Gilashin Flat: sabon gudummawar layin samarwa ga rage farashin yana da mahimmanci

Kamfanin ya fitar da rahoton shekara-shekara na 2018, tare da kudaden shiga na yuan biliyan 3,764, yawan karuwar kashi 2.4%, ribar kwatankwacin yuan miliyan 407, raguwar shekara-shekara na kashi 4.5%, ban da ribar da ba ta hanyar net ba. Yuan miliyan 370, raguwar shekara-shekara na 9%, daidai da tsammanin kasuwa.

Nazarin Kasuwanci

Farashin kayan shinge tare da ingantaccen damar samarwa ya fadi, kuma aikin shekara-shekara ya kasance mai natsuwa: Shafar sananniyar manufar 531, farashin gilashin daukar hoto ta fadi sosai a cikin 2018, Q3 low farashin ya fadi da 35% na hauhawar shekarar, kodayake a ƙarshen farashin dawowa, amma farashin siyarwar har yanzu yana ƙasa da 15% a cikin 2017, duk da haka, kamfanoni sun dogara da ƙarshen 2017 da 2018, bi da bi, ƙaddamar da tan q2 biyu 1000, adadin zuba jari na sabon layin samarwa, ninki ninki biyu na tsawon lokaci kuma a lokaci guda, matsakaiciyar farashin kayan masarufi ya ragu da kusan kashi 10% a shekarar 2017, yadda yakamata katange farashin kayayyaki, da kuma tallafawa cikakkun kudaden shigar da yake samu.

The price of photovoltaic glass will rise in 2019: the price of photovoltaic glass started to rebound from 2018Q4 and increased more before the end of the year. In march this year, the price was raised by 10% again. Although we had expected that the price of photovoltaic glass would rise in 2019, the rate of price increase was still faster than expected. Based on the macro supply and demand dynamics of photovoltaic glass throughout the year (supply +15%vs. Demand +25~30%) and the current enterprise micro inventory situation, we expect that the price of glass still has room to rise. The company's two 1000-ton production lines put into production last year will contribute to the annual output in 2019, and it is expected that two more 1000-ton production lines will be put into production in anhui and Vietnam respectively in Q2 and Q4 this year. The company's annual glass production and sales are expected to increase by more than 50%.

The expansion cycle is long, the competition pattern is good, and the double-sided penetration is accelerated. The high prosperity of photovoltaic glass will continue in 2020: due to the expansion cycle of photovoltaic glass industry for one and a half years, the potential new production capacity in 2020 is basically clear (about 20% increase). With the gradual production of new production capacity of the two leading enterprises in the industry, the industry concentration will continue to improve, and the leading edge of the industry duopoly will further expand. At the same time, with 1)2.5/2.0mm thin glass price gradually rationalized; 2) accelerated battery lamination trend; 3) the generation gain on the back side is widely verified by the actual power station; The penetration rate of double-sided power generation modules will accelerate, so that the growth rate of photovoltaic glass demand will continue to be faster than the growth rate of photovoltaic new installations. Based on the assumption that the annual compound growth rate of new installations is 20%, the demand for photovoltaic glass is expected to achieve 100% growth in three years. Therefore, the photovoltaic glass industry is expected to continue this year's high prosperity in 2020.

Samun canjin kuɗi da shawarwarin saka jari

After the adjustment, the company's 2019~21E net profit forecast is 6.7(+3%), 9.8(+17%), 1.2 billion yuan. The compound growth rate of net profit in three years is 43%, and the corresponding EPS is 0.35, 0.50, 0.62 yuan.

The current a-share price of the company corresponds to 49/33xpe for 209/20. We have lowered the a-share rating to "overweight". However, the price of H shares only corresponds to 10/7xpe in 209/20, maintaining the "buy" rating on H shares.


Lokacin aikawa: Dec-11-2019