회사는 2018 년 연간 보고서를 발표했다. 매출액은 3,640 억 위안, 전년 대비 2.4 %, 순이익은 4 억 3,600 만 위안, 비 순이익을 제외한 전년 대비 4.5 % 감소했다. 3 억 7 천만 위안, 시장 기대치에 맞춰 전년 대비 9 % 감소.

비즈니스 분석

효율적인 새로운 생산 능력을 갖춘 헤지 제품의 가격은 하락하고 연간 성능은 안정적으로 유지되었습니다. 잘 알려진 531 정책에 영향을 받아 2018 년 태양 광 유리 가격이 급격히 떨어졌으며, 3 분기 저가는 올해 최고치에 비해 35 % 하락했습니다. 가격 반등은 끝났지 만 판매 가격은 여전히 ​​2017 년 약 15 % 하락했지만 회사는 2017 년과 2018 년 말에 각각 2 천 톤의 2 분기 출시, 새로운 생산 라인의 투자 금액, 용량을 두 배로 늘리고 동시에 두 배로 늘리면 2017 년 평균 생산 비용이 약 10 % 정도 크게 감소하여 제품 가격 하락을 효과적으로 방지하고 연간 수익이 꾸준한 수익을 지원할 수 있습니다.

The price of photovoltaic glass will rise in 2019: the price of photovoltaic glass started to rebound from 2018Q4 and increased more before the end of the year. In march this year, the price was raised by 10% again. Although we had expected that the price of photovoltaic glass would rise in 2019, the rate of price increase was still faster than expected. Based on the macro supply and demand dynamics of photovoltaic glass throughout the year (supply +15%vs. Demand +25~30%) and the current enterprise micro inventory situation, we expect that the price of glass still has room to rise. The company's two 1000-ton production lines put into production last year will contribute to the annual output in 2019, and it is expected that two more 1000-ton production lines will be put into production in anhui and Vietnam respectively in Q2 and Q4 this year. The company's annual glass production and sales are expected to increase by more than 50%.

The expansion cycle is long, the competition pattern is good, and the double-sided penetration is accelerated. The high prosperity of photovoltaic glass will continue in 2020: due to the expansion cycle of photovoltaic glass industry for one and a half years, the potential new production capacity in 2020 is basically clear (about 20% increase). With the gradual production of new production capacity of the two leading enterprises in the industry, the industry concentration will continue to improve, and the leading edge of the industry duopoly will further expand. At the same time, with 1)2.5/2.0mm thin glass price gradually rationalized; 2) accelerated battery lamination trend; 3) the generation gain on the back side is widely verified by the actual power station; The penetration rate of double-sided power generation modules will accelerate, so that the growth rate of photovoltaic glass demand will continue to be faster than the growth rate of photovoltaic new installations. Based on the assumption that the annual compound growth rate of new installations is 20%, the demand for photovoltaic glass is expected to achieve 100% growth in three years. Therefore, the photovoltaic glass industry is expected to continue this year's high prosperity in 2020.

수입 조정 및 투자 추천

After the adjustment, the company's 2019~21E net profit forecast is 6.7(+3%), 9.8(+17%), 1.2 billion yuan. The compound growth rate of net profit in three years is 43%, and the corresponding EPS is 0.35, 0.50, 0.62 yuan.

The current a-share price of the company corresponds to 49/33xpe for 209/20. We have lowered the a-share rating to "overweight". However, the price of H shares only corresponds to 10/7xpe in 209/20, maintaining the "buy" rating on H shares.