Gilasi Flat: idawọle laini iṣelọpọ tuntun si idinku idiyele jẹ pataki

Ile-iṣẹ naa ṣe igbasilẹ ijabọ lododun ọdun 2018, pẹlu owo-wiwọle ti 3,77 bilionu yuan, ilosoke ọdun-ọdun ti 2.4%, èrè apapọ ti 407 million yuan, idinku ọdun kan ti 4,5%, laisi awọn ere ti kii ṣe apapọ ti 370 million yuan, idinku ọdun kan lori ọdun ti 9%, ni ila pẹlu awọn ireti ọja.

Onínọmbà iṣowo

Iye idiyele ti awọn ọja didi pẹlu agbara iṣelọpọ tuntun ti o lagbara, ati iṣẹ ṣiṣe lododun duro ṣinṣin: Ni ipa nipasẹ eto imulo 531 ti a mọ daradara, awọn idiyele gilasi fọtovoltaic ṣubu ni fifẹ ni ọdun 2018, awọn idiyele kekere ti Q3 ṣubu nipasẹ 35% fun ọdun giga, botilẹjẹpe ni opin opin owo pada, ṣugbọn idiyele awọn tita tun wa ni isalẹ nipa 15% ni 2017, sibẹsibẹ, awọn ile-iṣẹ gbekele ni opin ọdun 2017 ati 2018, ni atele, idasile ti q2 meji toonu 1000, iye idoko-owo laini iṣelọpọ tuntun, agbara ilọpo meji lori gigun ati ni akoko kanna, iye owo iṣelọpọ ti dinku gidigidi nipa 10% ni ọdun 2017, ni imunadoko idiwọ idinku ninu idiyele ti awọn ọja, ati lati ṣe atilẹyin awọn anfani owo-wiwọle rẹ ni kikun ọdun ti o mu awọn anfani iduroṣinṣin nigbagbogbo.

The price of photovoltaic glass will rise in 2019: the price of photovoltaic glass started to rebound from 2018Q4 and increased more before the end of the year. In march this year, the price was raised by 10% again. Although we had expected that the price of photovoltaic glass would rise in 2019, the rate of price increase was still faster than expected. Based on the macro supply and demand dynamics of photovoltaic glass throughout the year (supply +15%vs. Demand +25~30%) and the current enterprise micro inventory situation, we expect that the price of glass still has room to rise. The company's two 1000-ton production lines put into production last year will contribute to the annual output in 2019, and it is expected that two more 1000-ton production lines will be put into production in anhui and Vietnam respectively in Q2 and Q4 this year. The company's annual glass production and sales are expected to increase by more than 50%.

The expansion cycle is long, the competition pattern is good, and the double-sided penetration is accelerated. The high prosperity of photovoltaic glass will continue in 2020: due to the expansion cycle of photovoltaic glass industry for one and a half years, the potential new production capacity in 2020 is basically clear (about 20% increase). With the gradual production of new production capacity of the two leading enterprises in the industry, the industry concentration will continue to improve, and the leading edge of the industry duopoly will further expand. At the same time, with 1)2.5/2.0mm thin glass price gradually rationalized; 2) accelerated battery lamination trend; 3) the generation gain on the back side is widely verified by the actual power station; The penetration rate of double-sided power generation modules will accelerate, so that the growth rate of photovoltaic glass demand will continue to be faster than the growth rate of photovoltaic new installations. Based on the assumption that the annual compound growth rate of new installations is 20%, the demand for photovoltaic glass is expected to achieve 100% growth in three years. Therefore, the photovoltaic glass industry is expected to continue this year's high prosperity in 2020.

Awọn atunṣe awọn dukia ati awọn iṣeduro idoko-owo

After the adjustment, the company's 2019~21E net profit forecast is 6.7(+3%), 9.8(+17%), 1.2 billion yuan. The compound growth rate of net profit in three years is 43%, and the corresponding EPS is 0.35, 0.50, 0.62 yuan.

The current a-share price of the company corresponds to 49/33xpe for 209/20. We have lowered the a-share rating to "overweight". However, the price of H shares only corresponds to 10/7xpe in 209/20, maintaining the "buy" rating on H shares.


Akoko ifiweranṣẹ: Oṣu kejila-11-2019